Friday, July 10, 2009

The Gameshow Known as Life...

We return to a popular theme. Why do things in this world happen? Do we have control over our actions and over our futures, or has everything been predestined by God making the future unavoidable. This is the main problem we have with the Judeo-Christian ideology of predestination. It would seem that by subscribing to it, we cannot determine who is culpable for the actions of man. Does man have free will to choose whatsoever he wishes, thus making him responsible for his actions and therefore condemnable to eternal suffering for his moral violations? Or, if God knows already what will happen, then it must already be determined what will happen, therefore we are not in control over our decisions, thus we are not liable for any wrongdoing we might commit. This is where people have a problem, and the problem makes sense. There are passages in the Bible that support both the ability of man to choose his future and the foreknowledge of God coupled with the powerlessness of man. So what’s a person to do?

I think first we have to secularize the conversation. We need to shift the discussion away from religion. It is difficult enough to consider the existential philosophical dilemma of causation without also engaging in a theological debate. So let’s rethink the situation:

You are randomly selected to participate in a game operated by a super-intelligent alien from another planet. This super-intelligent alien is unique in that he can accurately predict the future, he is not a psychic, rather he actually knows exactly what the future will hold, he is infallible, and he is incapable of making an error. Whatever action you choose to take in the game presented to you has nothing to do with why the super-intelligent alien has made the prediction he has made.

The game is as follows: There are two cardboard boxes labeled A and B. You can choose to take the contents of both boxes or you can choose to take only Box B. Taking Box A only is not an option. Box A contains $1,000. The contents of Box B is determined as follows: before the game starts, the super-intelligent alien makes a prediction as to whether you will take only Box B or you will take Boxes A and B. If the alien predicts that you will take both boxes, then Box B will be empty, but if the alien predicts that you will take only Box B, then Box B will have $1,000,000.

By the time you are asked to make a selection, the alien has already made its prediction and the contents of Box B is already determined. So once the game starts Box B has either $0 or $1,000,000, and not a single entity has the power to alter the contents of Box B. As the player of the game you know that Box A contains $1,000 and that Box B contains either $0 or $1,000,000. You also know that the contents of Box B is based on the prediction made by the super-intelligent alien and that the super-intelligent alien has the unique ability to infallibly predict the future. The only piece of information that you do not know is what the alien actually predicted, so obviously you don’t know what is in Box B.

Which option do you select? Box A and Box B or just Box B? Your goal as the player in this game is to maximize the payout, to get the most money. The two choices represent two logically valid strategies that yield conflicting answers to which option will maximize the payout. All of the people reading this blog post who choose to select one of the options in this thought experiment will have a perfectly clear idea of which option you should select. The problem is that half of the people will choose to take both Box A and Box B and the other half will choose to take only Box B, and both sides will be absolutely convinced that they are right and that the opposing half is being irrational. 

Strategy number one says that no matter what prediction the alien has made, taking both boxes is always best. If the alien predicts that you will take Both A and B, then you are choosing between $1,000 (Box A and B) or $0 (Box B only). Obviously the preference would be to take both boxes. But, even if the alien predicts that you will choose only Box B, then taking both boxes gives you $1,001,000, whereas taking only Box B gets you $1,000,000. With the strategy of always taking both boxes you always get more money.

Strategy number two says that you should always only take Box B. These people recall that the super-intelligent alien is INFALLIBLE, thus his prediction must be correct. If the alien must be correct, then you can ignore the possibilities of getting $0 or $1,001,000 because both of these require that the alien made an incorrect prediction. So for these people, the decision comes down to choosing between $1,000 (Box A and B) or $1,000,000 (Box B only). In this case it is obvious that always choosing Box B maximizes the payout.

So does man have free will or is life predetermined? Well, if you believe that you should always choose Box B, then you are suggesting that the alien can know the future with certainty, as such, the alien is not so much making a prediction as it is observing an event and then describing it. In this case, the alien's knowledge of the future is determining its actions in the present, thus future events are causing effects in the past. Your choice will have already caused the alien's prediction. In this scope, free will does not exist, and you are not really making a choice, you are just doing what you are supposed to be doing. If you believe that you should always take both Box A and B, then you are suggesting that future outcomes are continuously changing moment to moment because of our ability to choose, thus at the time the alien makes the prediction it may be true, but things may change between the time the prediction is made and the time the box selection is made.

The paradox presupposes a perfect predictor, implying that you are not really free to choose; however, the problem simultaneously presumes that you can freely debate and decide on a choice. This is the same difficulty many people have with mediating a belief in Christianity and the omniscience of God with the belief in free will. And the debate ends very much in the same way as the above game: both sides of the dilemma have equally logical arguments that strongly support them. In either case, you are going to do exactly what it is you are going to do. I mean, either you are going to fight or you are going to give up, either do the right thing or do the wrong thing, either go left or go right, either study for the test or not study for the test, either believe in God or not believe in God. The discussion of free will versus determinism is illogical since both sides prove equally valid and the answer will forever be unknown. So why worry about it? Just go and try and live your life right. That's all anyone of us can do.

"God does not play dice with the universe." - Albert Einstein

"Freedom is the right to live as we wish." - Epictetus

7 comments:

cm said...

That was awesome.. very interesting. At the end of the game show though, somebody is going to "win" and somebody will "lose" in the case that one made the right choice. But we will not know in the game show of life until it is over and too late, the question remains: do you take the choice with more potential or the easier of the two?

Anonymous said...

I didn't even think about the actual ending of the "game." That if the game plays out someone will win and someone will lose. I guess the main focus of the question is more about deciding which strategy you believe to be best, not so much which one will win in a particular round of the game. I think it's an easy game because according to the idea of the alien always being right about predicting the future then you should ALWAYS win, otherwise the alien made a wrong prediction. I think the game highlights the fact that life decisions should not be looked at their macrocosmic levels because these levels can never be understood. Instead we should just focus on making whatever decision we think is proper... Good post.

Anonymous said...

Kind of funny. As I was reading this, I got frustrated and thought to myself 'nothing I ever do will help me in the end because it's all out of my hands'. Then I realized that I do at least 8 things a day to prevent more bad stuff from happening in the future - vitamins, supplements, exercise, etc. I guess I haven't decided on my strategy. Either way, I hope the Alien knows what he's doing because I was never good at gameshows anyway :)

~KA from GA

Andrew said...

Katya, I hate to frustrate you more, but if you don't have power over anything, then you are only taking vitamins, taking supplements, exercising, etc. because it has already been decided that you would do that. You aren't really choosing to do those things... That being said, I don't think that you don't have control. In fact I think somehow, someway you are absolutely in control of everything and at the same time you are in control of nothing. I'm not really sure how it works, but I think it doesn't make sense because we are not capable of understanding those high-minded concepts. I wrote this post because the game show just highlighted how most people are divided relatively evenly in the free will v. determinism debate. It's just easier to understand which side you're on when you talk about aliens rather than God. But the focus is to say, whichever side you are on, it is still only a matter of doing what you think is right and not to worry about whether you are really doing it yourself or it is determined that you HAVE to do it. We miss you KA from GA

angela m said...

i love free will vs. determinism debates, even though it can be like mental gymnastics at times. i kinda refused to give it up as a unknown though. i'm definitely a soft determinist or compatabilist...is it a cop out? i don't think so. if i were religious, I would say that free will does exist. god doesn't decide for us what we will do. but, because he is god, he KNOWS what we will do, hence he is omniscient. taking the idea of an all-knowing being out of the picture though...i'm still kinda of a determinist. i think not being a determinist is expecting effects that have no relationship to cause. which is obviously irrational. it's like putting an ice tray in the freezer and not expecting it to freeze (or if it doesn't freeze, not expecting to find some mechanical problem with the freezer). obviously everything that happens occurs because of what has a already happened. it's basic cause and effect, except that it is SO incredibly complicated, that we don't have the ability to map out the complete future based on the past. but why do i think free will is compatible with this? because i think the human mind and its thought processes are powerful forces in out world; our DECISIONS are powerful forces. just as powerful and definitely more enigmatic as the chemical forces that change water into ice. it's a worldview that has allowed me to accept determinism without feeling hopeless or useless.

Jenn Jilks said...

Andrew, you are a thoughtful man.

My hubbie's boss was painful in that he never made a decision. The boss was fired in layoff time. I think the strength lies in making the best decision you can, with the information you have at the time and dealing with it.

But it is the journey, not the destination.

What are the lessons?

What do you know?
What do you wish?
What do you believe?

But what I most want to know is how are you feeling today.

Take care.

Elie said...

Hey Andrew, interesting post, I must confess that at some point the A and B box example began to become confusing for me lol, i would have killed for a Box C if you get what I'm saying lol.
In any case,I believe I have come to a place where the dilemna between Foreknowledge VS Free will makes a bit more sense to me, I will shed some light on what I am saying. The first issue to me is not whether your choices are made for you or not. I believe it is accountability! I believe God to be like a parent who places a jar of cookies on top of the fridge, knowing you will one day undoubtably choose to reach for them, but the choices you make in your inner being have already determined you will get those cookies, and you take the necessary actions, by pulling up the chair getting on top and reaching for them. Now when your mom asks you did you take the cookies from the cookie jar, your answer to her could be. Imagine this answer "You already knew/know I would, therefore I am absolved of any guilt!". In which case she will answer you, that she didn't make you pull up the chair climb on top and get the cookies after you so painstakingly worked for them, which will result in accountability. I don't know if you remember the matrix and the oracle's conversations with NEO but she pointed him to a latin proverb "Temet nosce". The issue has never been if your choices are determined for you and I, The issue has been , do you know why we make those choices. I believe in free will, and if someone already knows what i will choose, it still does not vindicate me of the fact that i independently chose. I also believe that God because of his omnipotence and omniscience and need I add free will, yes I said it God has a will, he is not an impersonal deity aloof somwhere in the Cosmo's, he allows certain people and situations to enter into our lives. To demonstrate his infinite wisdom, try to wrap your mind around this, a being who controls situations through the free will of man. Only an infinitly superior being could accomplish this, and I believe he died on a cross for me and you to pay for all my sins, all the bad choices "I" made and make and will make, He chose you. Love you cousin.